Hi Mattias and all,
I have studies Statistics, Probability as well as Predictive modelling in university so I could share and discuss this topic. I will use 2 points to discuss.
- The first point is the mechanism of Probability and Predictive models, they use backward engineering with many assumption and limitations. Which mean from patients data of what happened in the past, they try to find out general rules, common patterns of the disease and come up with a Mathematical formula of Statistics and models to predict the disease. However, there are assumption and limitations such as patients come from certain city or country, patients are adult only. In the data, they cannot count all information of patients such as current mental health, how happy the patients are and many more, so the prediction fails when something what is not within assumption happens. => General but not specific
- The next point is Probability and Predictive models are built for a specific domain and problem. It cannot be used to predict another problem, such as cannot use disease probability to predict patient's marriage. => Learn one stuck with one.
When I know about Vedic Astrology, I have abandoned Statistics, Probability and Predictive models. The reason is:
- Astrology count as many things as possible to predict, so Astrology can predict specific details which are missed by Probability and Predictive models. => General and Specific
- Astrology can be used to predict in many areas: disease, marriage and job. => Learn once apply many.
The final thing comes down to Astrologer's skills and which area the astrologer wants to predict. I believe if a Astrologer learn about Ayurveda and focus on disease prediction, in the long-term the Astrologer has higher prediction probability than all disease prediction formulas.
@tuannguyen Yeah... So if I understand you right, math is just one indication, it helps you, but in astrology - as in life itself - you pretty much depend on your intuiton at the end of the day?
I remember Ernst telling us about his car problems; he intuitively grabbed a tool before opening up the hood, and that in most cases turned out to be the right choice. So: we have to have good tools, but in the end of the day intuition tells us which one to use.
Did I get you right?
Mattias
@meyes Hi, you are correct at the first point. What I would emphasize is that Maths, probability are limited in their assumption, theories so they cannot count all factors in the prediction. As a result, their predictions cannot be accurate and specific to the details. Comparing to Astrology, Astrology counts in as many factors as possible for prediction, astrological predictions would be more accurate and to the specific details.
About intuition, I don not want to include it into my sharing because it leads to something else. Everyone has intuition with the Moon, so they can use it no matter they are mathematician or astrologers.
Tuan Nguyen
@tuannguyen Well, that´s partly another discussion I guess, about intuition I mean. Maybe we have to offer a place for it to work, and that place may be a horoscope. Maybe we don´t trust our intuition in daily life, but in front of a horoscope or a card reading we find it easier to listen to our Moon.
Mattias
On the astrological wheel, the signs ruled by the Sun and the Moon are flanked by the two signs of Mercury. The Moon’s all-knowingness comes from the super fast etheric connections that Gemini makes. The Sun’s constancy comes from steady solid earthly connections that Virgo makes. One becomes intuition, the other science and mathematics, but both are based on logic. One is the creative intelligence of the right hemisphere controlling the left side of the body, the other is the logical intelligence of the left hemisphere controlling the right side of the body.
There are pitfalls with intuition too. Intuition is a snapshot of the future. But which future? Is it 2 days later, 20 years later, 200 years later, or 2000 years later? Intuition is wonderful, but it also needs structure, which brings us back into the realm of logic. Without structure, intuition has no basis. Without intuition, there is no growth. Two sides of the same coin.
Probability is based on a small set of data. To understand why that particular set of data was selected, one has to understand energy. To understand energy, one has to take into account the level of consciousness of the people addressing that issue.
Many innovations that we enjoy today have been the result of scientists following their intuition. Many are not mainstream yet because the collective is not yet ready to shift their focus. It is the same in every field, including astrology.
And somehow, even through our imperfections, the universal energy flows in the right way. All we have to concentrate on is becoming the best version of ourselves, doing the best we can in each situation, to keep on learning and growing.
@manisha I think that what you say about timing is the area where our human outlook differs from the spiritual outlook mostly, maybe... When spirits say "soon" it may mean within 15 years or so... They really don´t know about hurry. To my experience. So for that we need prediction techniques, for sure, intuition tends not to work for timing, I agree.
Mattias
For astrology- key planets are Jupiter,Ketu and/or Venus.
Intuition is moon. Moon is all knowing.
Having fully awakened intuitive faculty is a great blessing but I think in general its not really developed in most people. So people can easily get confused with their ego voice as intuition
So mathematical accuracy along with whatever intuitive feeling we can get should be a good combo to get guided well.
Mathematics doesn't work partially. If you give correct inputs to a formula, then you can expect correct output everytime. So formula and inputs both need to be correct in the first place else wrong results.
@amit Mm... Not sure if we are talking about the same thing, but according to Ernst an accurancy of 70-80 % for a technique is as good as it gets. So math has it´s clear limitation too. Not saying that it´s not important, only that it is what it is.
Mattias
80% accuracy is great indeed. General and behavioral astrology does not need accurate time, so it can be even higher.
Only predicting events to date should have accurate time.
@amit Yes, but again, if we are trying to predict a not common event with that accuracy, there will be much more false positive predictions than one actual event happening.
If we only rely on math, that is, not being guided by intuition.
I agree with Amit that it is easy to confuse ego voice as intuition. If that was not so, then all the psychics who rely on intuition alone would make correct predictions 100% of the time.
Just as intuition can be misinterpreted, if we do not know the fundamentals, anyone can use mathematical equations to prove that 1 is equal to 0 or 1 is equal to 2. Anything can be proven or disproven. It is the case of whether we want to see the glass half empty or half full. So the defect is not in the equation, but in the perspective of the one using it.
Intuition has a language of its own. It uses the language of the senses. The question is - how good are we at understanding that language? How observant are we of what happens around us and our own feelings?
A picture says a thousand words. Cards and tarot come closer to intuition, because it is based on imagery and numbers. The second closest is astrology because it is trying to understand emotions through logic. If we are only predicting 70-80% accurate, then it means that we are lagging behind in understanding intuition through logic, or not using intuition at all. What comes in the way? The ego’s arrogance, perhaps? Or perhaps the ego’s personal desires and wants?
To predict a not common event with accuracy, how would one prove it? We got the intuitive insight - great! But where does it belong? Is it accurate? How do we know that we are not projecting our needs on to others? Similarly, with timing, it shouldn’t be hard to prove it. If we can’t, then it means we are missing something important in the interpretation, and we need to improve our own understanding.
It is only when we use intuition within the framework of logic that we start to get a clear picture. The tighter the framework, the clearer the picture. The clearer the question, the clearer the answer. It is the dance of the Yin and the Yang. Intuition leads and logic follows, logic clears the way and intuition follows.
@amit I am not sure if it will only be intuition, but maybe a speed-of-light fast interplay of logic and intuition. After all, the mind has to grasp the intuition.